With Election Day days away, the 2026 midterms could bring significant changes to congressional control. The Cook Political Report's October 30 outlook projects a Democratic gain of 12 to 25 House seats, while its Senate ratings put a Democratic majority within reach. Our updated briefing examines where the races stand and what a change in congressional control could mean for appropriations, foreign assistance, and global health.
The House: Control in play
Cook's latest ratings place Democrats in the favorable position in 222 House seats, four more than the 218 needed for a majority. Its projected Democratic gain of 12 to 25 seats could produce a House majority of as many as 240 seats. Cook now identifies 18 Toss-Up races, 14 of them currently held by Republicans. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates 223 seats at least Lean Democratic and identifies 12 Toss-Ups.
The battleground has expanded into traditionally Republican territory. Cook moved PA-08 and OH-09 to Lean Democratic and CO-05, PA-01, and SC-01 to Toss-Up. NC-05, NC-09, NJ-02, and WA-05 are now rated Likely Republican.
The Senate: A closely contested majority
Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats up this year. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, and Cook projects a gain of two to six. Its seven Toss-Up races are Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. Kansas is now considered more likely to flip than Iowa, while Michigan represents Republicans' strongest pickup opportunity. Cook has also moved Nebraska to Lean Republican and Florida to Likely Republican.
Campaign cash and the national environment
Democratic candidates have made fundraising gains in several competitive races. In the third quarter, 40 of 46 DCCC Red to Blue candidates outraised their Republican opponents, averaging $2.1 million compared with $1 million. The NRCC's cash advantage over the DCCC narrowed to approximately $5 million in September, while the RNC entered October with $97.3 million in cash on hand, down from $130 million in July.
In Texas, James Talarico raised more than $60 million to Ken Paxton's $10.2 million in Q3; recent Fox polling showed the race tied at 49–49. Outside spending is also substantial: House Majority PAC and its affiliate raised $230 million in Q3, while MAGA Inc.-funded groups have spent or reserved $83 million for House advertising since Labor Day.
The national environment remains challenging for Republicans. The generic ballot stands at D+8.9 in the Silver Bulletin average and approximately D+8 in RealClearPolitics. More than 18 million Americans had voted early by October 22, with Democrats accounting for roughly 45 to 46 percent of ballots in states reporting party affiliation, compared with approximately 30 percent for Republicans.
What it means for foreign assistance and global health
Several Republican advocates for foreign assistance face competitive reelection campaigns. In the House, Reps. Tom Kean Jr. (NJ-07), Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06), and Jen Kiggans (VA-02) are in Lean Democratic seats; Mike Lawler (NY-17) is in a Toss-Up; and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) has moved from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. María Elvira Salazar (FL-27) remains in a Lean Republican seat. In the Senate, Appropriations Chair Susan Collins faces a Toss-Up race in Maine. Collins has been a leading advocate for global health funding, pressing the State Department to release $600 million for Gavi and announcing in July that the full contribution would be restored.
A change in congressional control would also reshape the committees responsible for funding and overseeing foreign assistance. If Democrats win, Patty Murray would likely lead Senate Appropriations, while Rosa DeLauro and Lois Frankel would lead House Appropriations and its National Security, Related Programs subcommittee. House Foreign Affairs leadership is likely to change regardless of which party controls the chamber. In the Senate, Jeanne Shaheen's retirement creates another leadership transition, with Chris Coons expected to chair Foreign Relations if Democrats win.
Despite political uncertainty, public support for global health investments remains strong. In a national survey of 16,131 adults conducted by Fraym and Kyle House Group, 78 percent initially supported maintaining or increasing childhood immunization funding. Support rose to 82 percent after respondents received additional program information, including 73 percent baseline support among Republicans and 70 percent among MAGA Republicans. Support for broader global health funding increased from 67 percent to 81 percent after respondents learned more about the programs.
What we're watching through November
Control of Congress: The remaining competitive House and Senate races will determine the balance of power and the size of any potential majority.
Late-cycle spending and turnout: Campaign advertising, party committee resources, and early-vote participation will offer additional insight into the closing days of the election.
Key Senate contests: Kansas and Michigan remain especially consequential, with different implications for the parties' paths to a Senate majority.
As election results take shape, KHG is tracking the implications for federal appropriations, committee leadership, and congressional relationships.
Sources: Cook Political Report; Sabato's Crystal Ball; Inside Elections; Silver Bulletin; RealClearPolitics; Pew Research Center; Roll Call; Axios; UF Election Lab; American Presidency Project; Fraym and Kyle House Group national survey (June 26–July 22, 2026). Data current through October 30, 2026.
